Mon Jun 30 10:35:31 2008

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Revisiting MLB Futures

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Three months ago, the Red Sox were the 4-1 favorites to win back-to-back World Series titles. Those odds have dropped down to 3-1, even though the Sox are in the midst of a dogfight with Tampa Bay for the division lead.

Speaking of the Rays, who would have thought they would be one of the top three teams in the American League at the end of June? Most experts had pegged them as an up-and-coming squad, but I can't recall any one picking them to make the postseason.

Only two teams - Kansas City and Baltimore - had more generous odds back in March to win it all than Tampa Bay. The Royals were 125-1 and now stand at 200-1, while the Orioles have dropped from 200-1 to 100-1.

Would you believe that Tampa is now the fourth lowest-priced club in the American League? Only the Red Sox (3-1), the Angels (7-1) and the Yankees (9-1) are favored over the Rays, who have been hit hard from 75-1 down to 12-1.

Can they maintain their place in the standings and reach the playoffs for the first time in team history? It might be a tough task, as Scott Kazmir has been the only starter dominating the opposition.

James Shields has yet to build on his 2007 campaign, sporting an ERA over 6.00 away from home, and Andy Sonnanstine is surviving solely on run support, as he's 10th in the league receiving 5.61 runs per nine innings. The right-hander had allowed 117 hits in his 94-plus frames prior to Sunday's start despite his 8-3 mark.

More importantly, it's been the relievers who have kept the Rays in contention, as the team trails only the White Sox in ERA from the seventh inning on. Tampa is hovering around the 4.00 range from the first to the sixth, good for seventh place in the Junior Circuit. Even with the average production of their starters, the Rays have to be pleased just being in the middle of the pack after floundering in last place one year ago in team ERA.

GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION

Looking back, it's easy to see why the Mariners received so much love back in spring training. They were coming off their finest season in years and even bolstered the pitching staff over the winter with the acquisition of Erik Bedard. Nevertheless, the excitement was short-lived, and became profound disappointment after a 7-24 stretch from April 23 to May 26.

If you remember, Seattle was the heavy 2-1 second choice to win the AL West, and 22-1 to win the World Series. Don't look now, but the M's are both the longest shot on the board to win the AL pennant (200-1) and the World Series (400-1).

Another club that has seen its odds rise from the start of the year is the Tigers. For the longest time in mid-March, they were listed at 9-1 until getting hammered late to about six.

No team had a less pleasing beginning than Detroit, losing its first seven games en route to a 6-13 record on April 20. More bad news followed when the afternoon of June 7 rolled around. Not only were the Tigers still 12 games below .500, but Jeremy Bonderman was also knocked out for the year on that date with a blood clot in his right shoulder.

A funny thing happened after that. Detroit started to win. Not only has Jim Leyland's club reeled off 16 wins in its last 20 games, the first-place White Sox have won only eight of their last 17 bringing the Tigers to within five games of Chicago.

Detroit currently stands at 8-1 to win the American League, while Ozzie Guillen's squad, the one with a five-game advantage, is just 7-1. With Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney back in the fold, look for the Tigers bullpen to pick up the pace and help the team win at least the AL Central. They're also a great bet at 16-1 to win the whole enchilada.

ON THE WAY UP

It's easy following the final weekend of June to declare the Cubs as the number one team in the National League. Not only are they the only squad primed for 95 victories, no one comes close to them in terms of gaming favoritism. Chicago is 4-1 to walk off with the World Series trophy, and its nearest competitor from the Senior Circuit is the 9-1 Phillies.

However, in what could only be termed as odd, the Cubs are 2-1 to win the NL pennant (not that much lower than their 4-1 series odds), and Philadelphia is right on their tail at 5-2, despite being 9-1 to win the World Series!

How can that be? Sure, the Cubs haven't been the same since losing Carlos Zambrano (4-4) and they will play more road games than home the second half of the season, but what have the Phillies done to warrant being 5-2 to represent the league in the fall classic? When is going 3-10 your last 13 a positive? In addition, there are three teams within four games of Philadelphia in the Marlins, Mets and Braves.

Finally, it's time to give John Russell some credit for keeping Pittsburgh around the .500 mark after three straight years of failing to reach the 70-win plateau. The Pirates already have 38 victories with two games left before the halfway point.

It's doubtful they can keep up this pace, but it's certainly reasonable to think that 70 "W's" is not out of the question, which is the number they were listed at in the pre-season over/unders.