Fri Apr 4 13:37:59 2008

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One - Not the loneliest number in Texas

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - For the first time in NCAA Tournament history, all four number one seeds have reached the Final Four. North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis and Kansas were the four best teams for most of the season, and for those who bet on all the top seeds reaching this stage at the beginning of the tourney, this Final Four has become extremely anti-climatic.

I remember writing a couple of weeks back about a certain bet that seemed easier to win than any wager involving the Patriots chances of reaching last year's Super Bowl. That was "will a number-one seed win the tournament?" In order to nail this bet, one had to lay $180 to win $100. Simple enough, right? Sometimes life has a way of making you feel like the king of the world, as this wager was wrapped up almost one week ago when Kansas held on to defeat Davidson. For those smart enough to place that bet, there's no better feeling than heading into the Final Four knowing that it doesn't even matter which teams win the next three games.

Now, for those who placed bets on the overall winner, let's examine which two teams have what it takes to reach the finals.

UCLA VS. MEMPHIS

The first game features two teams with a combined record of 72-4. This will be the Bruins' third consecutive trip to the Final Four after falling to eventual champion Florida in both years. Incidentally, these two teams met in the 2005-06 West Regionals in Oakland, a game that was excruciatingly painful to watch.

The Tigers and Bruins combined to hit just 33% from the field and 54% from the free throw line while committing 35 turnovers. Based on how well both clubs are currently playing, it's doubtful we'll get a repeat performance of that wretched event, a game UCLA eventually won, 50-45.

The Bruins have maintained their focus from day one of this season, losing just one game each in December, January and February. They have secured 14 straight victories, but are only 7-7 ATS over that span. Compare that to their 14-7-2 ATS mark in the first 23 games, and it's a testament to the inner strength of this team that they have come through "straight up" in every close game they have played of late. Since the beginning of March, UCLA is 5-0 SU in contests decided by three points or less.

On the other hand, the Bruins have not faced a powerhouse in this tournament, and have struggled mightily to get to San Antonio. Getting past Texas A&M by a deuce was one thing, but almost self-destructing against Western Kentucky is another. UCLA committed a season-high 19 turnovers and almost allowed the 12th-seeded Hilltoppers to walk off with a stunning upset. Sure, the Bruins rolled by 10, but after leading by 21 at the half, Western Kentucky could have cut the lead to a single point with less than seven minutes left if A.J. Slaughter's three-point attempt had tickled the twine.

From there, UCLA faced an inferior Xavier squad and rolled to a 76-57 victory by shooting 54% from the floor, while limiting the Musketeers to 36%. One thing's for sure, don't expect the Bruins to hit over 50% against Memphis.

The Tigers have been outstanding since struggling to knock off Mississippi State. They have nailed 57 of their last 111 shots against quality teams, such as Texas and Michigan State, to reach the Final Four with ease. I was skeptical of this bunch heading into the tournament based on the competition they had faced during the season, but they have proved me wrong time and time again. Sure they played Georgetown, Arizona and Oklahoma this year, but all three games were held in Memphis. In addition, they were taken to overtime by USC at Madison Square Garden back in early December, before pulling it out.

On the flip side, knocking off Texas (in Houston) the way they did proved just how scary good they are. I know UCLA's Kevin Love is a difference-maker, but he's never had to face Joey Dorsey before. In addition, besides Love, the Bruins pretty much play the same offensive style as Texas does, and the whole country witnessed how much trouble the Longhorns had with Memphis. With that in mind, it's no wonder the Tigers are now favored by two points after opening as a one-point underdog.

Take Memphis minus the points.

KANSAS VS. NORTH CAROLINA

Roy Williams left Kansas for North Carolina in 2003 after 15 years at the helm of the Jayhawks. The storyline for this contest would be even more significant if this meeting took place on Monday instead of Saturday night. Still, there won't be a dry eye in the house when this one is over.

If any one-seed has had a cakewalk trip to the Final Four, it's Kansas. The best team the Jayhawks had to face was eighth-seeded UNLV. To put that in perspective, the four teams Memphis played totaled a number of 34 with a 16, 8, 5 and 2. (Obviously, the higher the number equals a much easier road to travel.) North Carolina dealt with a grand total of 32, while UCLA met a 16, 9, 12 and a 3 for a final tally of 40. The Jayhawks' competition totaled 46. Even so, they wouldn't even be here if Davidson point guard Jason Richards had made the final shot in the Midwest Regional Finals.

Davidson might have ended the year as the second-best team in the state of North Carolina, but there's a much bigger difference between the Wildcats and the Tar Heels. Roy Williams won a national title with NC in 2005 and is well on his way with an entirely new bunch of players in 2008.

The Tar Heels have lost two games all season, and only one with their starting five on the floor as Duke got the best of them without Ty Lawson in early February. Since that contest, they are 15-0 straight up and 9-6 against the spread, including a perfect 4-0 in the NCAA's. And unlike Kansas, when faced with a challenge from an extremely tough opponent (Louisville), they not only won, but also pulled away to win by 10.

Both teams like to spread the scoring around and usually go eight deep. When two clubs with similar styles meet, the squad with the superior talent usually emerges victorious, and that team will be North Carolina. And, just in case it's a close contest down the stretch, Williams can take solace in the fact that four of his five leading scorers all shoot 80% or better from the free throw line.

Take North Carolina minus the points.