Fri Aug 1 11:39:24 2008

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Big East '08: West Virginia is the team to beat

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Heisman Trophy candidate Pat White, who is 26-4 as a starter at West Virginia, hopes to add a BCS National Championship to his list of accomplishments, but could be hard-pressed to do so with just four returning starters on defense. Still, the Mountaineers are the class of the Big East, and they will win their first outright league title since '05.

The conference as a whole couldn't match its outstanding 2006 campaign when the league finished 31-8 SU and 27-11-1 ATS in non-conference games. The eight clubs also went 14-7 SU and 16-5 ATS vs. the other five BCS conferences two years ago, not to mention 5-0 SU in postseason play.

Last year, the numbers dipped slightly to 26-13 SU and 23-16 ATS vs. the rest of the country (in lined games), but fell sharply against BSC schools to the tune of 8-10 SU and 9-9 ATS.

Below we take a look at this year's version of the Big East, with odds to win the conference followed by BCS National Championship odds. Keep reading for in-depth analysis of the three Independent clubs.

BIG EAST CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS

1) WEST VIRGINIA (1-1, 20-1) - For the first time since 2000, Rich Rodriguez will not be roaming the sidelines in Morgantown.

Offense - The Mountaineers move forward without Steve Slaton and Darius Reynaud, but eight of the other nine starters return, including all five from one of the best offensive lines in the country. West Virginia was the only team to rush for more than 4.5 ypc in Big East play (5.2), and sophomore Noel Devine could produce even stronger numbers than Slaton did last season.

Defense - The Mountaineers lose eight of their top 11 tacklers and the returning defensive leader, Reed Williams, had both shoulders operated on in the offseason. The d-line brings in a grand total of 13 career starts, while the secondary, save for the banner position in the 3-3-5 stack, returns only four lifetime starts.

Outlook - New offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen emphasized more passing in the spring, especially short screen setups to the running backs. West Virginia will put up its share of points, but the defense will determine if the club is national championship caliber. Either way, the Mountaineers will go 6-1 in winning the Big East crown. They are 15-5-1 ATS as an away favorite the last six years.

2) PITTSBURGH (5-1, 25-1 Field) - It's put up or shut up time for Dave Wannstedt in his fourth season at the helm, with zero bowl games to his credit.

Offense - The offense runs through LeSean McCoy, who broke Tony Dorsett's team freshman rushing TD mark with 14 en route to being named the Big East's frosh of the year. Injuries forced McCoy to shoulder the load, but with QB Bill Stull and WR Derek Kinder fully healed, look for a huge increase in production.

Defense - Pitt finished third in the country in passing "D" while holding opposing rushers to just 3.2 ypc. The Panthers were the lone conference team to allow less than 300 yards per game in league play and they accomplished that feat without their three leading tacklers from '06. Expect even better numbers this season.

Outlook - Most prognosticators feel Pittsburgh is a year away from making noise. Nevertheless, don't be surprised if the Panthers win 10 games (five in the Big East) this season, as they are just as talented as any team in the league. Wannstedt's club is 7-2 ATS off a SU win, but 2-9 ATS off a SU loss the last two seasons.

3) RUTGERS (5-1, 75-1) - For the first time in Mike Teel's college career, this is his team, after Ray Rice departed as the school's all-time leading rusher.

Offense - Teel improved in his second year as a starter with a 20-13 TD/INT ratio as opposed to his 12-13 numbers in '06. Look for a more even run-pass split after a 60-40 distribution the past two seasons, especially after the departure of Rice, who simply rushed for 3,806 yards and 44 TDs combined in '06 and '07. Another problem spot is the line, which returns just 28 starts among the two-deep.

Defense - The Scarlet Knights defense could be the best in the conference. The unit, which led the league holding opposing QBs to hit on just 51% of their passes, brings back 75% of the tackles from its top 13 stop leaders as opposed to the 54% that returned from the top 13 heading into the '07 campaign.

Outlook - Rutgers would be a top 10 team if Rice hadn't opted for the NFL. Even so, there's enough talent remaining for another eight-win season, five of which will come in conference play. The Knights are 9-1 ATS in non-conference games the last two years.

4) USF (2-1, 75-1) - It's not often a team is ranked number two in the nation and three weeks later is out of the top 25. That's what happened to the Bulls last year.

Offense - USF averaged 35 ppg in '07, 12 more than the previous campaign despite throwing for just 12 more ypg and rushing for only 0.4 more ypc. The key was an increasing number of red zone chances and conversions. With 10 starters back, the offense should put up similar numbers, but might not be as strong as most people expect.

Defense - Last year, South Florida ranked third and fourth in scoring and total defense after leading the league in both areas in '06. Now the unit must move forward without its fantastic cornerback duo of Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams. On the other hand, George Selvie and Tyrone McKenzie both return. Selvie had 31.5 tackles for loss last year while McKenzie has recorded the most tackles in the country (250) the last two seasons.

Outlook - USF looks awfully tough on paper, but will falter once again where it counts most, on the field. The Bulls, who lost four games last year and were rocked by a decimated Oregon club in the Sun Bowl, will finish in a three-way tie for second at 5-2. They are 4-1 ATS as a home dog the last three years.

5) CINCINNATI (7-1, 100-1) - The Bearcats tied a club record with 10 wins in Brian Kelly's first season at the helm.

Offense - Cincinnati set team marks for scoring (36.3 ppg) and touchdowns (63), but quarterback Ben Mauk (31-9 TD/INT ratio) was denied a sixth year of eligibility. In addition, the two leading rushers who averaged over 5.0 ypc also won't be coming back.

Defense - The Bearcats led the nation with 26 interceptions and both CBs return, including first team All-American Mike Mickens. Second team All- American Terrill Byrd also returns, but it's interesting to note that even with its star-studded lineup, Cincinnati still ranked sixth in Big East play in total defense.

Outlook - Brian Kelly's club, which benefited from a +16 TO margin, outscored its opponents 140-53 in the first quarter. With an offense unlikely to duplicate its record-setting numbers, it'll be extremely difficult for the Bearcats to be an above .500 team in conference play. They are also 7-3 as a home dog the last four years.

6) LOUISVILLE (16-1, 100-1) - After compiling a 32-5 record from '04-'06, the Cardinals fell to 6-6 as the defense allowed 31 points per game.

Offense - The offense remained strong scoring 35 ppg, but take away the 73 vs. Murray State, and the number falls to 32, a sharp decrease from previous years. Future NFL prospect Hunter Cantwell (4-0 as a starter) takes over at quarterback, but the top three reception leaders from last season all depart.

Defense - What happened to the defense last year? Louisville allowed 31 ppg, its largest figure since 1998. Making matters worse in '08 is the fact that eight of the top 13 tacklers have moved on, including four of the top five.

Outlook - The Cardinals have eight home dates, which should keep them afloat, but the talent level is far from usual Louisville standards. Don't be surprised if the club wins just two Big East games after going 3-4 last year. The Cards were 1-4 ATS as a home favorite in '08 after going 15-2 the previous three seasons.

7) CONNECTICUT (12-1, 25-1 Field) - UConn finished 9-4 last year, but wins over Temple and Louisville were somewhat tainted, as the officials blew critical calls in each game.

Offense - If the Huskies want another shot at a share of the Big East title, they must improve on this side of the ball. Nine starters return, but eight came back last year and the unit only improved from seventh in league play to sixth.

Defense - Continuity was the key for the 14th-ranked scoring defense in the country, as the same 11 players started 12 of the 13 games. However, the club finished next-to-last in conference play in total defense, allowing 417 yards per game. The Huskies were the only team in football to have four players record over 100 tackles.

Outlook - Even though Connecticut finished 5-2 in Big East play, the team was outgained by 83 ypg. The Huskies were not as good as their record indicated, and that 5-2 mark will do a complete 180 in 2008. They are 7-1 ATS as a home dog the last three years.

8) SYRACUSE (40-1, 25-1 Field) - The Orange is 7-28 in Greg Robinson's three years as head coach.

Offense - Only Texas Tech ran for fewer yards per game than Syracuse (63), but at least the Red Raiders can throw the ball. The Orange also ranked 116th in scoring and 114th in total offense. Look for the passing numbers (55th) to fall as well, after leading receiver Mike Williams was suspended from school back in June.

Defense - The Orange finished last in the country in sacks with nine. Opponents scored 50 touchdowns while converting 93% of their Red Zone opportunities.

Outlook - After going 1-6 in conference play the last two years, the Orange will revert to its '05 campaign and put up a goose egg in the win column. Interestingly enough, the team is 27-19 ATS in even years this decade.

INDEPENDENTS

1) NAVY - Paul Johnson leaves for Georgia Tech after compiling a 43-20 record the last five years.

Offense - Last year's question mark was an o-line that had to replace three, two-year starters. Surprisingly, the team rushed for 349 ypg and broke the school's scoring mark with 511 points. Once again, the line loses three starters, but the "O" should be just as potent as both QBs (Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku- Enhada and Jarod Bryant) will be on the field at the same time as quarterback and slot back, respectively.

Defense - In 2006, Navy had eight players record 50 tackles or more. Only one, Clint Sovie, returned in '07, and he was lost for the season in game two. It's no wonder the Midshipmen allowed the most points in team history. This year, eight of the top 10 tacklers return, as well as Sovie, so look for Navy to have one of the most improved defenses in the country.

Outlook - The Midshipmen reel off another eight-win season making the transition from Johnson to Ken Niumatalolo a smooth one. They are both 11-2 ATS as an away dog and 9-1 ATS vs. Army and Air Force the last five years.

2) NOTRE DAME (60-1 to win the BCS National Title) - Last season was as bad as it gets in South Bend, with the Irish winning only three games.

Offense - Not only was their win-loss record abysmal, they finished last in the country in total offense, averaging 242 yards per game. The offensive line allowed 58 sacks while the rushing game produced only four 100-yard outbursts. Improvement is expected with everyone a year more experienced.

Defense - The defense, which ranked 39th in total "D" and 72nd in scoring, loses three of the five players that recorded 50 tackles or more, including the top two. A year ago, four of the top six tacklers returned, so it's doubtful Notre Dame will be stronger on this side of the ball.

Outlook - Overall, the Fighting Irish should be a better team, especially with an easier schedule. However, don't expect miracles as they are still a year away. A 6-6 record is all Charlie Weis can ask for. ND is 6-3 ATS as an away dog, but 5-10 as a home favorite the last three years.

3) ARMY - The Black Knights are 17-76 this decade and are coming off back-to- back 3-9 campaigns.

Offense - Head coach Stan Brock will not announce his starting quarterback until he sees more of true freshman Paul McIntosh in fall camp. If he's the real deal, look for Knights to score more than the four offensive first quarter TDs they accumulated in '07. Brock would like to use more of an option attack this season, which would certainly be a smart move considering the top four rushing leaders return, while the top three pass catchers depart.

Defense - Graduation hit the defense hard, as eight of the top 11 tacklers said goodbye to West Point. The front seven should remain consistent, but the secondary is a mess with a combined nine career starts among the two-deep.

Outlook - Brock has had a quiet confidence throughout the spring, giving Black Knights fans a reason to stay positive despite the player turnover. In addition, of the 11 FBS games on the schedule, the five non-common opponents from a year ago went a combined 24-37 in '07. The five clubs they replace were a combined 49-20 heading into '06 and all went bowling in 2007.