Fri Jul 25 10:41:22 2008

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Tulsa shoots for second C-USA title since '05

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Since joining Conference USA in 2005, Tulsa has won 18 of 26 league games, and after crushing Bowling Green 63-7 in the GMAC Bowl, the Golden Hurricane are the prohibitive favorites to pick up their second C-USA crown in four years.

They do lose quarterback Paul Smith and their top four tacklers, but the rest of the team stands head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, even though teams from the East Division have won 26 of the 38 battles vs. the West the last two campaigns. Tulsa has been the exception, with nine victories in the 11 games against the East since 2005.

Overall, the league failed miserably in out-of-conference FBS games last season, finishing with a 12-34 SU record and a 20-26 ATS mark. In addition, C- USA went 2-25 SU and 10-17 ATS vs. BCS schools. Improvement is not expected.

WEST DIVISION

1) TULSA - The Golden Hurricane won 10 games for the first time since 1991 after blowing out Bowling Green 63-7 in the GMAC Bowl.

Offense - Tulsa could win 10 more this year even if new starting quarterback David Johnson is only half as good as Smith, who signed on with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The club is loaded offensively, as nine starters return from a unit that ranked first in the country in total offense a year ago.

Defense - On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Hurricane finished 108th in the nation in total defense, and now must move forward without its top four tacklers who combined for over 500 stops last season.

Outlook - Tulsa has one of the softest schedules of any FBS school, which will make the QB transition a bit easier. Look for seven conference wins along with one more in the championship game. Todd Graham's club is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games.

2) RICE - The Owls won seven games in '06, but just three last season. Oddly enough, they finished 41st in scoring offense and 112th in scoring defense in '06, and 40th in offense and 118th in "D" in '07. So why the big drop-off in wins?

Offense - The first six games saw the o-line open holes for 570 yards on 2.5 ypc and 21 sacks against. The second six brought quite the opposite - 761 yards on 4.8 ypc and just nine sacks. Despite the slow beginning, the Owls set a school record with 377 points as they averaged 43 ppg the final four games.

Defense - It's usually not a good sign when a team allows an average of 33 ppg and the fourth quarter hasn't started yet. Rice has given up 69 passing TDs the last two years - the most in the country - but look for massive improvements this season as the Owls bring back eight of their top nine tacklers.

Outlook - Most prognosticators expect another poor season from Rice, so it's entirely possible the club will be the underdog in most of its games. The Owls, who should reel off six league wins, are one of the top teams to bet on in '08. Don't forget, they are 6-1 as a home dog the last two seasons.

3) HOUSTON - Who needs Kevin Kolb? The Cougars outgained their league foes by 137 yards per matchup en route to a 6-2 C-USA mark.

Offense - Both QBs, Case Keenum and Blake Joseph, return, but their main weapons have all disappeared. Gone are Anthony Alridge, Donnie Avery and Jeron Harvey who combined for 24 TDs, 188 catches and 1,597 rushing yards.

Defense - The Cougars were the only C-USA team to hold opposing league QBs under 50% passing last season. The defense also finished second against the run.

Outlook - In an interesting twist of fate, it will be Houston's offense, not the defense, that will cause the team to finish third in the West at 5-3. The Cougars are 2-7 ATS the last three seasons in their final three lined games.

4) SMU - The Mustangs won only one game last year after just missing out on a bowl game in 2006.

Offense - June Jones comes to Dallas to help inject some life into the Mustangs. Unfortunately, QB Justin Willis missed the spring with his second suspension in the last two years. If he returns, SMU will easily improve upon its eighth-place C-USA finish in scoring offense.

Defense - The Mustangs went into last year with just one returning starter from the defensive line. Then, MLB Reggie Carrington left school just prior to the season opener. The "D" allowed 5.0 ypc and over 300 passing yards per game.

Outlook - SMU lost five games by a combined 20 points. If Willis is reinstated, the Mustangs will improve from zero league wins to three. They are 9-5 as an away dog the last three years.

5) TULANE - The Green Wave has won only 10 games the last three seasons.

Offense - Tulane scored a grand total of three points in the first quarter of its first five conference games and that was with 2,000-yard rusher Matt Forte on the team. His departure and an unsettled QB position leave the Wave in dire straits.

Defense - Tulane improved dramatically on the defensive side, finishing fifth in league play in total "D" after ranking last in '06. Seven starters return, so look for continued positive steps.

Outlook - This season will be a step back at 2-6 in league play. The Green Wave is 6-17-1 ATS in C-USA play the last three seasons.

6) UTEP - The streak continues. The Miners, who lost to UCF last November 24, have now failed to win their final game of the season every year since 1988.

Offense - Sophomore QB Trevor Vittatoe threw 25 TD passes with only seven picks, but five of the top six pass-catchers depart, as does 1,100-yard rusher Marcus Thomas.

Defense - The Miners ended up 12th and last in league play in both scoring and total defense in '07, and will be without leading tackler Braxton Amy this year after the linebacker suffered a torn ACL in the spring.

Outlook - Expect another rocky season in El Paso with just a pair of league victories. UTEP is 3-8 as a home favorite the last three years.

EAST DIVISION

1) MARSHALL - The Thundering Herd has won just one of its first two conference games in the last three years combined. However, the club is 10-8 SU over the final six going back to 2005.

Offense - Running back Darius Marshall will put up Ahmad Bradshaw-type numbers in '08, after rushing for 631 yards on 5.1 per carry in his freshman season. All that needs to be found is a quarterback to replace Bernard Morris.

Defense - The Herd ranked fourth in league play in scoring defense without its star, Albert McClellan. The 2006 C-USA defensive player of the year is back after missing the entire '07 season.

Outlook - Marshall did not score a first quarter TD until the next-to-last game of the season. If the Herd can counteract that, look for Mark Snyder's club to be the surprise winner in the East at 5-3. The Herd is 4-12 as an away dog since '05.

2) UCF - The Knights won 10 games for the first time since 1990, but fell to Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl. The last time they went bowling, they won just four games the following season.

Offense - UCF improved its C-USA scoring average from 22 points to 44 as Kevin Smith rushed for 2,567 yards and 29 TDs. It will be an almost impossible task to repeat that type of production, especially since a trio of three-year o- line starters also depart.

Defense - The "D" that finished number one in C-USA play in total and passing defense, as well as sacks, remains virtually intact with nine returning starters.

Outlook - The Knights do not play their third league game until the ninth week of the season, giving the offense tons of time to jell. However, there's zero chance of another 7-1 season without Kevin Smith. A 4-4 record sounds much more reasonable. UCF is 3-8 ATS vs. BCS schools the last four years.

3) EAST CAROLINA - The Pirates are in similar shape to UCF as they lose RB Chris Johnson, but bring back nine defensive starters.

Offense - East Carolina scored the most points (403 - 31 ppg) in school history after losing its leading rusher, receiver and starting quarterback. Despite the gaudy numbers, the Pirates finished next-to-last in conference play in total and passing offense.

Defense - ECU ranked fourth in the nation with a +17 TO margin as the "D" forced 20 league turnovers. Nine starters return to the unit that allowed 28 ppg in its eight league games - good for fourth best in the conference.

Outlook - Defeating Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl should do wonders for the club's psyche. On the other hand, the Pirates went 5-0 last year in games decided by five points or less. A 4-4 league mark is a distinct possibility. They are 26-11 ATS under Skip Holtz and 12-2 as an away dog the last three years.

4) MEMPHIS - The Tigers roared at the finish, winning their final three regular season matchups to reach a bowl game after going 2-10 in '06.

Offense - Memphis needs a new quarterback and running back to replace Martin Hankins and Joseph Doss. Arkelon Hall, Washington State's scout team player of the year in '05, is the favorite to win the QB spot, while former Miami- Florida running back Charlie Jones could transfer to Memphis come the fall.

Defense - The defense was a mess last year, ranking 100th in the country allowing 441.5 ypg. Former Miami-Florida defensive coordinator Tim Walton comes to Memphis to solidify the unit.

Outlook - The Tigers won six of eight league matchups, but outgained their conference foes by just six yards per game. They'll finish in a three-way tie for second at 4-4. Tommy West's club is 16-8 ATS off a SU loss the last five years.

5) SOUTHERN MISS - After 14 straight winning campaigns, Jeff Bower was forced out as head coach. New head man Larry Fedora will install a hurry-up offense to a team that ranked eighth and sixth in scoring offense in league play the last two years.

Offense - It's extremely difficult for a team to improve when new offensive schemes take shape, but more so with Southern Miss since the Golden Eagles' quarterbacks have one combined collegiate toss.

Defense - With only four returning starters and a new system to learn, look for Southern Miss to have its worst statistical defense since the 1990s.

Outlook - This season will be a stepping-stone to what could be a solid year in '09. However, there will be a lot of growing pains in Hattiesburg this fall, as the Golden Eagles win just three conference games. They are 12-3 ATS as an away favorite the last five years, but 4-9 ATS as a home favorite since 2005.

6) UAB - Last year was a season of change with just eight returning starters and a new coaching staff. The Blazers should be much more competitive in '08.

Offense - UAB's offense was non-existent last season, as the Blazers not only finished dead last in scoring in C-USA play, they averaged a TD less per game than their closest rival. Nevertheless, the o-line allowed just 14 sacks the final 10 games, an impressive number for a team that threw the ball 62% of the time. If Aaron Johns qualifies, the offense could surprise.

Defense - The Blazers finished last in the country allowing 257 rushing ypg. However, the D-line started three freshmen and one sophomore. With a year of growth and a veteran secondary, UAB will trim points off last year's 35-ppg average.

Outlook - Despite the 2-10 campaign, the Blazers led Florida State at halftime, Mississippi State after three quarters, and were tied with UCF at the half. Look for them to double their SU win total and cover the huge number vs. Tulsa the first week of the season. UAB is 6-3 ATS out-of-conference the last three years.