Fri Sep 26 14:30:34 2008

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NFL - Be wary of high-priced favorites

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - There were three games last week in which the double-digit betting choice failed to cover.

-The Bills, who were 10-point favorites over the Raiders, needed a Rian Lindell field goal at the buzzer to escape with the SU win.

-The Giants were giving 13 points to the 0-2 Bengals and the defending Super Bowl champions were taken to overtime before moving to 3-0 with a John Carney three-pointer in the extra session.

-The other huge favorite actually lost the game outright. The New England Patriots, the other Super Bowl XLII participant, lost their first regular season game since December 10, 2006, as they were destroyed 38-13 by the previous team (Miami) that defeated them two years ago.

St. Louis has been one of the two constants this season when it comes to huge spreads. The Rams have been heavy underdogs all three weeks - by 9.5 to the Eagles in week one and by nine to both the Giants and Seahawks. All three times they have bitten the dust, both SU and ATS.

However, take St. Louis out of the equation and there have been seven games this year that featured a betting favorite of eight points or more, and six of those times the underdog covered the spread. Not only that, three of the six won the game outright.

Underdogs of eight or more points were also 8-5 ATS the last two weeks of the 2007 season, so this is a trend that is definitely worth following, unless of course, the St. Louis Rams are involved.

BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK

What a monumental collapse by Chicago.

Leading by 10 points with 6:30 remaining, the Bears should have easily covered the three-point spread. Instead, Tampa Bay came roaring back to tie it at the end of regulation and eventually won the game in overtime on a Matt Bryant 21- yard field goal.

How could a defense that held the Bucs to just 194 total yards in the first 53:12 give up 260 yards in the final 17:27? Not only did the defense allow Tampa Bay to drive 79 yards for the game-tying touchdown at the end of the fourth quarter, the offense failed to pick up two measly yards on a third-and- two with just over two minutes to go which would have sealed the win in regulation.

WEEK FOUR PLAYS

Last week, the OVER dominated as predicted, coming on top in 11 of the 16 games for a winning percentage of 69%. Unfortunately, Week 4 has not followed the same path as Week 3 in recent seasons, as the combined record from the last two years shows only a 15-13 lead for the OVERS. My advice this week is to concentrate on the spreads rather than the OVER/UNDERS.

The major play this week comes from Dallas where the Cowboys host the Redskins. Dallas is currently tied for first with the Giants at 3-0, but Washington is right on its heels at 2-1. Despite the closeness in records, "America's Team" is actually a double-digit favorite in this game.

The Cowboys are 2-1 ATS with both victories coming on the road. The only loss was not only a home game, but a division contest as well. The line for that matchup vs. the Eagles was 6.5 points, so what the oddsmakers are saying is Philadelphia would be a 5.5-point favorite over Washington on a neutral field. Somehow, that doesn't sound too accurate.

The Redskins are not getting much respect in this one, despite the fact they have won four of the last six meetings and are 5-1 ATS the last three years. Dallas is coming off a Sunday night road win, the third straight time this season the away team has won on Sunday evening. The first two clubs, the Bears and Steelers, both lost the following week.

Take the Redskins plus the points.

The second contest pits two AFC South squads squaring off in Jacksonville. The Texans are 0-2, losing by a combined 40 points to Pittsburgh and Tennessee. It's true both games were on the road, but that's exactly where they'll be once again this Sunday.

Matt Schaub has already thrown five interceptions to just one touchdown strike in the early going and with Ahman Green doubtful, the onus will be on rookie Steve Slaton to provide the spark.

The West Virginia product did just that with a 50-yard burst early in last week's game vs. Tennessee, but it still didn't help the Texans' cause as they failed to convert a touchdown on a first-and-goal from the Titans' four-yard line. Tennessee ended up winning the game, 31-12.

The Jaguars rebounded from a wretched 0-2 start by upsetting the Colts, 23-21, in Indianapolis last week. Even though they played uninspired ball the first couple of weeks, their two losses came against a pair of undefeated teams in Tennessee and Buffalo. The win over the Colts should boost their confidence coming back home vs. Houston.

The Texans are ranked dead last in total defense in the AFC, so look for Jacksonville to pound out an easy win, evening its record at 2-2.

Take Jacksonville minus the points.