Fri Dec 21 15:02:18 2007

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Raiders Stand Between Jaguars, Playoffs

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(Sports Network) - The Jacksonville Jaguars will attempt to sew up a spot in the upcoming AFC Playoffs, as the Wild Card hopefuls close out their regular- season home slate against the Oakland Raiders this Sunday at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.

The Jaguars need only a victory or tie against the lowly Raiders to guarantee themselves an invitation to the conference's postseason fray for the second time in three seasons. Jacksonville will also clinch a playoff position if division-rival Tennessee loses or ties its game with the New York Jets on Sunday, or if Cleveland falls at Cincinnati this weekend.

Jacksonville not only appears to be a virtual lock for one of the AFC's two Wild Card berths, but it appears as if the club will be one to be reckoned with once it gets to the postseason. The Jags have ripped off five victories over their last six games and handed AFC North co-leader Pittsburgh its first home loss of the year with an impressive 29-22 win last Sunday at Heinz Field.

The Jaguars beat the physical Steelers at their own game, as the offense grinded out an eye-popping 224 rushing yards and 421 overall against one of the league's most respected stop units. The Jacksonville defense held its own as well, limiting Pittsburgh to a mere 217 total yards on the afternoon.

Jacksonville also showed the resolve necessary to succeed in the playoffs. After the Steelers scored 15 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 22-22, the Jags answered with a well-executed 73-yard scoring drive capped by running back Fred Taylor's 12-yard touchdown burst with 1:57 remaining.

Despite that confidence-building win and this week's matchup with a 4-10 Oakland squad at home, Jack Del Rio's troops still shouldn't be taking anything for granted, however. After all, Jacksonville appeared to be on its way to the playoffs last season before losing its final three games and missing out on the postseason with an 8-8 record.

For the Raiders, these last two regular-season tilts of 2007 will provide nothing but a chance to evaluate their young and unproven talent, most notably quarterback JaMarcus Russell. The top overall pick of this past April's draft is expected to receive some designated work in Sunday's game as the primary backup to regular signal-caller Josh McCown.

Russell has seen spare action in two of Oakland's three most recent games and completed 6-of-12 passes for 66 yards in his limited time directing the offense.

Oakland, which has lost 10 or more games in each of the last five seasons, will be without its best offensive weapon for this week's showdown, as running back Justin Fargas will miss the remainder of the year after spraining the MCL in his right knee during last week's 21-14 home loss to AFC South champ Indianapolis.

Fargas did record 89 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries before the injury, giving the speedy fifth-year pro a career-best 1,009 rushing yards for the campaign.

SERIES HISTORY

The Jaguars have a 2-1 lead in their all-time series against the Raiders, breaking a tie with a 13-6 road win when the teams last met, in 2004. Oakland, which will be traveling to Jacksonville for the first time, earned its only all-time win against the Jaguars at home in 1996.

Del Rio is 1-0 in his career against the Raiders. Oakland's Lane Kiffin, who served as an assistant with Jacksonville in 2000, will be meeting both Del Rio and the Jags for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE RAIDERS HAVE THE BALL

The injury to Fargas is certainly a blow to a potent Oakland ground game that ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing offense (132.4 ypg), but the Raiders do have a pair of veteran backs with good track records in LaMont Jordan (549 rushing yards, 3 TD, 28 receptions) and Dominic Rhodes (65 rushing yards). Jordan performed well as the starter early in the season before getting into Kiffin's doghouse and relinquishing his role to Fargas, while Rhodes has done little since signing a two-year free-agent deal with Oakland in March. The former Indianapolis Colt did rush for a season-best 41 yards on seven carries against his ex-club last week, however. Both Jordan and Rhodes are accomplished receivers and can aid an offense that is next-to-last in passing yards (166.6 ypg) this year.

McCown (1105 passing yards, 10 TD, 11 INT) hasn't made much of an impact in his first season in Oakland, but the journeyman has played pretty well in three games since re-claiming the starting job from Daunte Culpepper (1331 passing yards, 5 TD, 5 INT). McCown has thrown five touchdowns and just two interceptions over that recent surge, although he's failed to eclipse 141 passing yards in any of those games. Ronald Curry (52 receptions, 4 TD) and Jerry Porter (40 receptions, 5 TD) give McCown and Russell a pair of capable targets at the wideout spots, while rookie Zach Miller (33 receptions, 2 TD) has had a solid first season at tight end. If the Raiders fall behind big on Sunday, expect Russell to receive an extended look in the second half.

Jacksonville's tough defense has remained strong despite recent injuries to three key players -- tackle Marcus Stroud, middle linebacker Mike Peterson (70 tackles, 2 sacks) and end Reggie Hayward (17 tackles, 3.5 sacks). Stroud is done for the year after undergoing ankle surgery, while Peterson (broken hand) and Hayward (groin) are expected to remain sidelined for Sunday's test. Several young players have stepped up to fill the voids for a unit that stands fifth in the league against the run (94.4 ypg). Rookie linebacker Justin Durant (37 tackles, 1 INT) had 10 tackles in the win over Pittsburgh, while second-year end Brent Hawkins (10 tackles, 3.5 sacks) had two sacks subbing for Hayward last week.

If there's a knock on the Jaguars, it's the No. 25 overall rating in pass defense (228.2 ypg) that the team brings into this game. That wasn't a problem area last Sunday, though, as Jacksonville held the Steelers to a paltry 106 net yards through the air and sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times. There's plenty of talent in the Jags' secondary, as corner Rashean Mathis (55 tackles, 1 INT) earned first team All-Pro honors last season and 11-year pro Sammy Knight (83 tackles, 4 INT, 11 PD) has added a stabilizing veteran presence to the backfield. End Paul Spicer (33 tackles) has also put forth an excellent 2007 season and leads Jacksonville with 7 1/2 sacks.

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

Jacksonville's offense often doesn't get the credit it deserves due to a conservative approach and a lack of big-name recognition, but the group has quietly amassed the seventh-most points (23.9 ppg) and ninth-most yards (350.1 ypg) in the league. The always-overlooked Taylor (1091 rushing yards, 4 TD) keys a powerful rushing attack that churns out nearly 150 yards per contest (2nd overall) and has been downright punishing in recent weeks. The Pro Bowl snub has produced four straight 100-yard efforts and is averaging an awesome 6.9 yards per carry over that span. The Jaguars have been able to keep the 31- year-old Taylor fresh by having him split work with Maurice-Jones Drew (724 rushing yards, 8 TD, 34 receptions), a hard-nosed second-year back who also excels as a receiver and dangerous return man.

An obvious contributing factor to Jacksonville's success has been the remarkably steady play of quarterback David Garrard (2310 passing yards, 16 TD, 2 INT) in his first full year as a starter. The athletic signal-caller's 101.6 passer rating trails only Tom Brady for tops in the NFL, and he's only turned the ball over four times in the 11 games he's played. Garrard threw three touchdown passes in last Sunday's triumph at Pittsburgh, including a 55- yard strike to wideout Dennis Northcutt (43 receptions, 4 TD). The emergence of former first-round pick Reggie Williams (32 receptions, 8 TD) as a big-play threat has also buoyed the Jags' aerial attack. The rangy receiver has four touchdown grabs over the last five weeks and is averaging 17 yards per catch on the year.

Taylor could be primed for another big afternoon when he faces an Oakland defense that has been routinely mauled by its opponents in the run game this year. The Raiders are surrendering 143.8 yards per week on the ground (31st overall), although they did hold Indianapolis Pro Bowl back Joseph Addai to just 44 yards on 15 attempts last Sunday. A slimmed-down Warren Sapp (45 tackles, 2 sacks) hasn't dominated the interior like he once did, while the midseason loss of fellow lineman Tommy Kelly has proven to be tough for the Raiders to overcome. Young linebackers Kirk Morrison (109 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) and Thomas Howard (83 tackles, 6 INT, 1 sack) have been active and productive, but both are better in coverage than as stoppers.

Teams have had a much tougher time throwing on the Raiders, who are giving up an outstanding 197.4 passing yards per game (4th overall) and have garnered 17 interceptions. Howard's six picks are the most by a linebacker since Baltimore's Ray Lewis had the same amount in 2003, while Nnamdi Asomugha (32 tackles, 1 INT) and Stanford Routt (35 tackles, 3 INT) are fast and physical corners. Oakland's pass rush has been sporadic for most of the year, although ends Chris Clemons (18 tackles, 7 sacks) and Derrick Burgess (34 tackles, 6 sacks) have both been effective off the edge.

FANTASY FOCUS

There's arguably been no better fantasy running back over the last few weeks than Taylor, and the hard-working veteran draws a very favorable matchup against Oakland's submissive run defense. Taylor's resurgence has limited the value of Jones-Drew, but the diminutive youngster still makes for a decent flex option and could vulture a rushing touchdown in this game. Williams' affinity of finding the end zone also doesn't make him a bad play as a second or third receiver, but use Garrard only if you don't have better alternatives. Since the Jaguars give up less than 15 points per game at home and the Raiders aren't very explosive on offense, there's no reason not to use the Jacksonville defense this week.

You won't find much to choose from on the Oakland side from a fantasy perspective now that Fargas has been shelved. Rhodes, who's likely available on the waiver wire in many leagues, has sleeper potential but will be going against a tough run defense. McCown should not be used under any circumstances, and the Raiders' instability at quarterback makes any Oakland receiver a huge risk.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Due to their small-market status, lack of star power and punishing, grind-it- out style of play, it's hard to think of a more overlooked 10-4 team than the Jaguars. It's time for people to start paying attention. Jacksonville may lack sizzle, but last week's performance in Pittsburgh provided some pretty good evidence that this is a team capable of doing some damage come playoff time. And there's plenty of motivation here despite the Jags' clear superiority over Oakland. Jacksonville couldn't finish the job down the stretch last year, and you can be sure Del Rio will hammer that point home to his players this week. Plus there's the slap in the face of Jacksonville not getting a single player named to the AFC Pro Bowl squad even though it owns the third-best record in the conference. The Raiders will be hard-pressed to slow down Taylor and the Jaguars' merciless rushing attack, while Jacksonville should be able to take advantage of a one-dimensional Oakland offense and punch its ticket into the postseason with a resounding win.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 31, Raiders 6