Fri Jun 8 21:01:18 2007

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Belmont Stakes - Curlins race to lose

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - A field of seven will go postward on Saturday for the 139th running of the Belmont Stakes. Curlin, winner of the Preakness, is the morning line favorite, followed by Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun and the filly, Rags to Riches. The other four are C P West, Tiago, Imwildandcrazyguy and Slews Tizzy.

Curlin came into the Derby undefeated but had raced just three times, all in his three-year-old season. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt did not hit the track as a two-year-old, but was still the morning line choice in the Run for the Roses. The son of Smart Strike wasnt able to run his usual "sit-stalk- mow" race after a slow break from post two. He was backwardly placed in 13th at the half-mile pole, some 12 lengths behind the early pacesetters, but picked up eight lengths on the leaders as the field galloped around the far turn. Despite the solid gain, it was not the best move of the race as Street Sense took apart the rest of the field with his devastating trip up the rail. Nonetheless, the Derby proved Curlin had the ability, in spite of the tremendous lack of seasoning and bottom needed to win on the "First Saturday in May."

Curlins preferred racing style is to be three-to-five lengths off the early, lead then roar by the field around the final turn. Thats how he was able to win his earlier races, even though they came against suspect competition. After tasting defeat for the first time at Churchill Downs, his first true test came in the Preakness and one can honestly say he passed with flying colors. After stumbling out of the gate, he settled further back than expected, but the pace was extremely quick up front. It took him a few strides to change leads down the stretch, but once he did, he had enough left to pass Street Sense by a head as the two raced to the wire.

With the Preakness now behind him, there is no telling how good Curlin can be. A victory in the Belmont Stakes and the lightly-raced colt will have won two- thirds of the Triple Crown and that could make all the difference in the world when the Eclipse Awards are handed for 2007. A lengthy rest will follow as Asmussen gets Curlin ready for the late summer action.

THE FIELD

1) Imawildandcrazyguy - Prior to the Kentucky Derby, Imawildandcrazyguy had only two victories in 11 chances. His fourth place finish was the most surprising result of the entire race. The gelding was last for most of the Derby before unleashing a powerful drive around the turn while racing 10 wide into the stretch, by far and away the worst part of the racetrack. He ran his final four furlongs in :49 flat and a similar effort could get this February foal a good chunk of the million dollar purse.

2) Tiago - Like Curlin, this colt has just five career starts, but unlike the Preakness winner, Tiago will race for the first time since Derby Day. How much of a factor that is remains to be seen, but three of the last four Belmont Stakes winners have won off a five-week layoff. The Santa Anita Derby winner was extremely far back in Kentucky and gained ground late to finish seventh, beaten 10 lengths. Tiago wasnt anywhere near as wide as Imawildandcrazyguy and instead of making one huge bold move it was as if he was just passing tired horses. He does have the breeding for the grueling 1 1/2-mile distance, but the talent level is far off the level of the top choices.

3) Curlin - This years race is very similar to that of 2005 when Afleet Alex finished third in the Derby and then won the Preakness. Afleet Alex should have been 1-5 in the Belmont, but instead was let go at the insanely generous odds of 6-5. There is a decent chance that Curlins odds do not stray too far 6-5, which would present tremendous value for those placing win bets on the favorite. With the pace of this race expected to be much slower than the Preakness, look for Curlin to sit much closer to the front end, and then pounce on the leaders around the turn, a la Point Given and Risen Star. Dont be shocked to see a dominating performance as the rest of this field leaves a lot to be desired.

4) C P West - The Nick Zito-trained colt ran a credible fourth at Pimlico, beaten only 5 lengths by Curlin. A lot was made of Mario Pinos decision to move Hard Spun to the top way too early, but not much was written about Edgar Prados move on C P West. The son of Came Home ran his third quarter in a blistering 23 1/5, which left him zero chance of winning. Its also interesting to note that despite ranging up alongside Hard Spun at the top of the stretch, he did not have what it took to ever pass him and eventually ended up 1 lengths behind the Derby runner-up at the wire. Zito and Prado squashed the "Smarty Party" back in 2004 when their Birdstone prevented Smarty Jones from capturing the Triple Crown, but dont expect a similar result this time around.

5) Slews Tizzy - The speed of the race drew directly inside of Hard Spun with post-position number five. Slews Tizzy passed on the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness while winning the Lexington Stakes and Lone Star Derby, respectively. Prior to those two events, he finished 7th, beaten 11 -lengths by Circular Quay in the Louisiana Derby at odds of 57-1. He has yet to defeat any horse of quality and it will remain that way after Saturday. The favorite to finish last.

6) Hard Spun - He benefited from the track bias to finish second in Kentucky and received a terrible ride in the Preakness while picking up third money. Owner Rick Porter then decided to replace jockey Mario Pino with Garrett Gomez, which should help Hard Spuns cause for the "test of champions." The son of Danzig is the only horse in the field with three straight 100+ Beyer numbers and is an amazingly consistent colt. However, he failed to get the job done against Street Sense and Curlin, and Gomez has already wished he hadnt committed to him so early as he is the regular rider of the filly, Rags to Riches.

7) Rags to Riches - Only two fillies have ever won the Belmont Stakes with the last one coming all the way back in 1905. Genuine Risk and Winning Colors both failed in the Belmont after winning Kentucky Derby, and another filly, Silverbulletday, finished seventh in 1999. There are two schools of thought on Rags to Riches. One says she has proved herself worthy with dominating performances in the Santa Anita and Kentucky Oaks and is regally bred to go the 1 1/2-mile distance. The other says she was beating up on a mediocre crop of three-year-old fillies and has no chance against the big boys. My feelings on her fall somewhere in between. In a different year, I would give her zero chance, but there is not a single horse in this race that stands out as a legitimate contender besides Curlin.

HOW THE RACE WILL BE RUN

Look for Slews Tizzy to set the pace followed by Hard Spun. Curlin should be much closer to the lead than he was in his last two starts, while C P West sits in fourth. Rags to Riches will be fifth down the backstretch, with Tiago and Imawildandcrazyguy trailing the pack.

As the seven horses go around the far turn, Curlin will march to the top with Hard Spun, C P West and Rags to Riches giving chase. Slews Tizzy has seen better days and falls out of it. The two closers begin to gain some ground approaching the top of the stretch.

Its here where Curlin shows what hes made of. The favorite pulls away to a five-length lead and leaves Rags to Riches and Hard Spun in the dust. Through the stretch, Curlin opens up more daylight on the field, while Imwildandcrazyguy kicks it into high gear and moves past Rags to Riches and Hard Spun for second.

The final order of finish: 1) Curlin; 2) Imawildandcrazyguy; 3) Rags to Riches; 4) Hard Spun; 5) Tiago; 6) C P West; 7) Slews Tizzy