Fri May 2 14:40:02 2008

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Final Kentucky Derby Analysis

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The first Saturday in May is just around the corner and 20 of the best three-year-olds in the country will be headed postward for the 134th Kentucky Derby in a matter of hours. Only one horse can be draped with the blanket of roses and many feel it will be either Big Brown or Colonel John standing alone in the winner's circle at Churchill Downs. Can the former cross the wire first in just his fourth career start from post 20 or will the latter secure the dream trip behind what should be a brutally fast pace up front and roll off by five lengths? More importantly, can any of the other 18 horses post the upset?

One thing's for sure, handicapping this race became a whole lot easier after Wednesday's post-position draw, as a few colts can now be tossed out without a second glance.

A lot has been written about Rick Dutrow's decision to take post 20 for Big Brown when he could have chosen two, 18 or 19. Some would call it arrogance. Others say his huge ego must have tripled in size since Big Brown's win in the Florida Derby and nothing short of overcoming all obstacles will be good enough. Nonetheless, there was actually a thought process going on in Dutrow's head for picking the far outside post position.

First off, horses from posts 10 and 20 are the last two to load, which prevents Big Brown from losing focus at the start. Secondly, there is zero chance the horse can be sandwiched between two other colts from the outside post, something that might have happened if he chose the two or 18. And since Dutrow has not made too many friends the past few weeks with his haughty comments concerning the chances of the other 19 horses, that scenario could easily have taken place.

However, the decision doesn't come with any guarantee of a smooth break. Big Brown is now directly outside of two horses -- Recapturetheglory and Gayego -- that will vie for the early lead, which means Kent Desormeaux will have to expend much more energy than usual to get to the top. The odds of him tucking in behind those two and rating just off the pace are a million to one. That was made very clear by Dutrow since he has constantly stated he prefers to have the least amount of dirt kicked in Big Brown's face, and being clear on the outside with no horse in front of him is the only way he can be dirt-free.

This proves one thing and one thing only: Big Brown will be sent to the top regardless of how long it takes to get there or how wide he will be. Oh, and if anyone thinks otherwise, check out his workout on Thursday. Nothing like three furlongs in 35 2/5 to tighten the screws a little bit.

What, if anything, can be deduced from all of this? If Big Brown does indeed win the Derby, he will become a strong favorite to give the racing world its first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed 30 years ago. However, that's a big "if" and at 3-1 or maybe lower, the most logical thing to do is throw him out along with the other five pacesetters.

Who might those be? The first is Bob Black Jack. The six-furlong world-record- holder is a sure-fire bet to get the jump on the outside speed since he will be breaking from post 13. It had been written earlier that his connections would want to rate their horse since it's doubtful he will be able to get the 1 1/4 miles, but with the addition of blinkers, and Richard Migliore in the saddle instead of David Flores, look for him to be in front as the field hits the first quarter in 22 4/5.

In addition to Bob Black Jack and the three outside speeds (Recapturetheglory, Gayego and Big Brown), there are two horses from the inside that have no choice but to waste energy by showing early foot in order to get decent positioning. Cool Coal Man and Tale of Ekati, who both like to run near the front end anyway, will join the other four to ensure a brutally quick half in 45 4/5.

There is no way any of those six (with the slight possible exception of Big Brown) will be around at the wire, which narrows the selection process from 20 down to 14 and maybe 15. Six more horses can be passed over as well since they don't appear to have any realistic shot at hitting the board. They are as follows: Adriano, Z Humor, Smooth Air, Anak Nakal, Big Truck and the filly, Eight Belles. It's been 20 years since Winning Colors won the 1988 Kentucky Derby, but that one had already mastered the colts in garnering the Santa Anita Derby by 7 1/2 lengths. Eight Belles has yet to even run against males and one of the main reasons she is even in the Kentucky Derby is because her trainer, Larry Jones, already has Proud Spell in the Kentucky Oaks.

With 12 (11 since I can't totally throw out Big Brown) of the 20 now out of the picture, the prospects of nailing the trifecta has gotten much, much clearer. Of the eight (9 with Big Brown) remaining colts, only one has proven to be a notch or two above the rest and that's Colonel John. The only question that remained after his Santa Anita Derby score was if he would be able to handle the dirt since all he has known is the synthetic cushion tracks in Southern California. That nonsensical banter was put out to pasture after his 57 4/5 work at Churchill Downs last Sunday.

Unfortunately, not much separates horses two-through-eight, and any combination of Monba, Denis of Cork, Cowboy Cal, Court Vision, Pyro, Visionaire and Z Fortune, plus Big Brown, could round out the trifecta.

Perhaps the only way to conquer this and make it somewhat feasible is to single Colonel John on top of those eight horses for second as well as third. That $2 wager would cost $112 and the payout wouldn't be that bad considering it's a 20-horse field. Of course it would help if Big Brown and Pyro were not the two other horses since they will be the only other colts in single digits on the big board.

For those that can't afford such monetarily high bets and would like to stick with only a few horses to play underneath Colonel John in exacta wagering, I suggest Monba, Denis of Cork, Cowboy Cal and Court Vision as the fearsome foursome to be used for second behind the "Colonel."

Of course, all of this is meaningless if the track comes up sloppy on Saturday. But as of Friday morning, the forecast calls for rain most of today into the overnight, but clear on Saturday with temperatures in the high 60s and low 70s.

KENTUCKY OAKS

Anther betting strategy for the Derby is to combine Friday's Kentucky Oaks with Saturday's main event in the Oaks-Derby daily double.

Eleven will go postward in Friday's race and there are three that stand head and shoulders above the rest. Pure Clan already sports two wins over the Churchill surface in the Pocahontas and the Golden Rod Stakes last fall, and has lost twice to Eight Belles in her only two starts in 2008. Both of those defeats came by less than two lengths at 1 1/16, and it's obvious this filly needs more distance, which she'll get in the Oaks. In addition, there's a chance she might not even be one of the top-two favorites!

Look for the public to jump all over both Proud Spell and Country Star. The two ran in the Ashland Stakes on the Polytrack surface at Keeneland, and the latter ran by far the more impressive race even though she finished fifth to Proud Spell's third.

Country Star went about five wide on both turns and never seemed to get good footing. Amazingly enough, she was beaten by only five lengths for the top spot, and Proud Spell, who had a much easier trip sitting closer up in third, just off the dueling leaders in slow fractions, still was all-out trying to hold off 18-1 longshot Life is Sweet for third.

Did Proud Spell not like Poly or is she just not fast enough? I am leaning towards the latter since her average running time for her final 2 1/16th furlongs this year is 30 4/5. Meanwhile, Pure Clan has come home quicker than that in her last three efforts and it wasn't as if she was closing like a beast in those events. She was close to the pace, within 2 1/2 lengths of the leader at the half in two of the three!

The third possible winner, besides Pure Clan and Country Star, could be Golden Doc A. This filly, flat out, loves to race. She's already hit the track 12 times and six of those starts came in a three-month period last fall.

Since adjusting to a more common schedule of one race per month, the daughter of up-and-coming sire, Unusual Heat, has one victory with four seconds in her last five efforts. She's a stone closer that should love the 1 1/8 distance of the Oaks. What will help her even more is the fact she drew the rail after two consecutive outside posts, which saw her go about 10 wide in her last two events. She's also a grade-one winner and since she's raced primarily in Southern California, look for improvement on the dirt as so many other horses have come east to substantially increase their speed figures.

So how does all this information help you in your Kentucky Derby bets? Two ways. First, by boxing Pure Clan, Country Star and Golden Doc A in exactas, and watching two of the three finishing one-two, that should increase your bankroll just in time for Saturday's race. Secondly, I advise everyone to use those three horses on top of Colonel John in the daily double, a bet that might be easier to win than any wager one could make in the Derby itself.

PREDICTED KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS

Finally, time to give everyone a glimpse at what my Derby odds look like, followed by how they might appear come post time:

1) Big Brown, 3-1, 3-1; 2) Colonel John, 7-2, 4-1; 3) Pyro, 7-1, 7-1; 4) Denis of Cork, 12-1, 10-1; 5) Monba, 13-1, 15-1; 6) Gayego, 13-1; 12-1; 7) Court Vision, 16-1; 15-1; 8) Cowboy Cal, 18-1, 30-1; 9) Z Fortune, 18-1, 16-1; 10) Visionaire, 20-1; 22-1; 11) Tale of Ekati, 20-1, 14-1; 12) Smooth Air 30-1; 30-1; 13) Bob Black Jack, 32-1, 24-1; 14) Adriano, 34-1, 25-1; 15) Eight Belles, 37-1; 19-1; 16) Recapturetheglory, 40-1; 28-1; 17) Cool Coal Man, 40-1; 35-1; 18) Z Humor, 45-1, 40-1; 19) Big Truck, 50-1, 45-1; 20) Anak Nakal, 60-1, 50-1.