Tue Apr 29 15:17:35 2008

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Sizing up the Kentucky Derby Field - The Key Contenders

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Most of the buzz this spring has been about Big Brown and his unbelievable performance in the Florida Derby. Add to that the recent comments made by his trainer, Rick Dutrow, and the 134th renewal of the "Run for the Roses" could be a very special two minutes.

If you happened to miss it, here's what Dutrow said. "Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race. I know there's no one going into this race as good as [Big Brown] is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."

Most trainers usually hold their own horses in high esteem, but rarely does one go public about his feelings towards the quality of the other colts in the race.

It's true Big Brown has been unstoppable in his young career, but another horse three years ago was even faster. Bellamy Road came to Kentucky with four wins in five races, including two straight wins in 2005 by a combined 33 1/4- lengths. His final prep prior to the Derby was a 17 1/2-length score in the Wood Memorial, a race in which he earned a Beyer number of 120. For comparison purposes, the highest figure Big Brown has secured is 106.

Bellamy Road was a front-runner that had to learn how to rate in the Derby after Spanish Chestnut blazed out the first half in 45 1/5 and three quarters in 1:09 2/5. The George Steinbrenner-owned colt was fifth at both points, a position he certainly was not accustomed to, and ended up tiring through the stretch, hitting the wire in seventh place.

The jury is still out on Big Brown if he can rate slightly off the pace. He didn't need the lead in his second start, but also was never more than one length off the top spot at any point in the race either. In his two appearances this year, he ran his first quarter under 23 seconds each time, reached the half below 46 twice, and sped six furlongs no slower than 1:10.

One can only imagine how fast they'll go in the Derby, and based on how loud Big Brown's connections have been about his supposed greatness, you just have to wonder if Kent Desormeaux won't just move him a little too early just to prove his explosiveness. Big Brown will also have to fend off a major challenge from Gayego approaching the far turn, which could soften him up in the stretch drive.

All this may be for naught if he is indeed a "freak of nature," but he will have to prove it against the best of the best this coming Saturday. Remember, the only very good horse he's beaten has been Smooth Air, and even he'll be 30-1 or higher in the Derby.

So why is everyone so much in love with Big Brown? The majority of racing fans feel this crop of three-year-olds is not only much weaker than last year's, but on the slow end when compared to almost every year this decade. Big Brown has been the only horse that has posted a pair of triple-digit Beyers on dirt in 2008, and it's those speed figures that have lifted him onto this high pedestal.

However, the reason his numbers tower over the rest of the field is that "Team Beyer" has not adjusted the figs for synthetic surfaces, giving the false impression that he's much faster than everyone else. Since the Blue Grass and all the races in Southern California have been run over synthetics, the numbers on Monba and Colonel John should be much higher than they appear in the racing form. Something to remember when placing bets next weekend.

THE TOP CHOICES (Prior to the Post Position draw)

It should be noted that Behindatthebar has withdrawn from the race, giving Denis of Cork the opportunity to jump into the field. With the Todd Pletcher- trained horse off the board, Tale of Ekati falls out of my top 10, in a spot now held by Visionaire. Z Fortune drops from eight to nine, so part three of this trilogy begins with the horse with the eighth-best chance of smelling the roses - Pyro.

The Risen Star and Louisiana Derby winner went off as the even money favorite in the Blue Grass (on Polytrack) and came up empty with a 10th place finish. It's very easy to dismiss the race by saying he didn't like the surface, but as mentioned in part one of this series, not one horse since 1957 has come back to win the Derby after finishing worse than 4th in his prior start.

It's true there was no such thing as Poly 50 years ago, but there are concerns about his ability to win at 10 furlongs. His dam side is loaded with speed and his sire Pulpit, who finished a tiring fourth in the '97 Derby, has not produced many horses able to win past 1 1/8-miles.

In addition, Pyro has had only one race longer than 1 1/16, if you can call his effort in the Blue Grass a race. Don't forget, his huge last-to-first burst in the Risen Star came all the way back on February 9. He does have talent, but he also could pull a Circular Quay (last year's LA Derby winner from off the pace) and run a non-threatening sixth.

Gayego, the number seven horse on the list, impressed more than a few experts in winning the Arkansas Derby, and with three wins and two seconds in five lifetime starts, he could end up going off the third choice behind Big Brown and Colonel John.

However, one has to wonder if he would have won the Ark Derby if better horses were entered. The race was weak on paper after the first two finishers, and it ended that way with 37-1 shot Tres Borrachos finishing almost five lengths back in third.

It might have been an easy task to sit a length or two off of "The Three Drunks" and be able to withstand the likes of Z Fortune through the stretch, but it will be a completely different story having to chase Big Brown, Recapturetheglory and Bob Black Jack in the early going, and still be able to withstand the presence of Colonel John, Monba and the rest of the closers through the lane.

In addition, if he runs his final three furlongs anywhere close to the 38 3/5 it took him to finish the Arkansas Derby, say goodbye to any realistic chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. He does have tons of talent, already out- running his pedigree, and even if he doesn't hit the board on Saturday, he could be a threat in the Preakness.

Court Vision, the next horse on the list, failed to improve on his two-year- old form with third-place finishes in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial.

At first glance, it appears he is entirely too slow to win this race, as his Beyer numbers have never topped the 90 mark, even on true dirt. Nevertheless, he does have a stakes win over the track and he's been training fabulously at Churchill the past couple of weeks.

On the negative side, he could be too far back to corral the entire field and win the race. Some might argue that it's been done before, as Giacomo and Street Sense both came from 18th and 17th respectively, after six furlongs to gain the victory, but there's a major difference between how those two performed prior to Kentucky and how Court Vision runs.

Giacomo was never more than four lengths behind the leader after three- quarters in any race leading up to the Derby (excluding his first career race) and the farthest Street Sense had to come from off the pace after six furlongs was 4 1/2-lengths back, not counting his Breeders Cup Juvenile victory. Court Vision, on the other hand, has had to make up 10 lengths at the three-quarter mark in both his three-year-old starts.

That's why Bill Mott sharpened him up with a 46 1/5 bullet work on April 17, hoping to improve his colt's mid-race positioning. If that works, Court Vision could be motoring home through the stretch at Churchill Downs.

THREE THROUGH FIVE (IN REVERSE ORDER)

Denis of Cork has somewhat of a similar running style to Court Vision, but the main difference between the two is that the David Carroll-trained colt has more natural ability. It didn't show in the Illinois Derby, and his fifth- place finish almost kept him out of the most important Derby of them all.

Nevertheless, he had no chance that day based on three factors: the track bias did not favor his come-from-behind style, he stumbled slightly approaching the clubhouse turn, and, most importantly, he might not have been revved up for the race based on the misguided handling that took place by his owner.

Previously, he was undefeated in three starts, including a monster performance in wining the Southwest at Oaklawn Park, and no one, with the possible exception of Colonel John, has looked better at Churchill Downs the past week. Additionally, he is one of six horses with a win over the track.

On the downside, he'll be entering the Derby with only four races under his belt and just one since February 18. Even Big Brown has raced twice since then. In addition, the last time a horse won with four lifetime starts was all the way back in 1918.

One other interesting nugget to chew on. Since Calvin Borel has picked up the mount, it raises a key question: when was the last time a jockey had back-to- back Kentucky Derby victories? You have to go back to 1982-83, when Eddie Delahoussaye won with Gato Del Sol and Sunny's Halo.

Before I announce the name of the horse that's fourth on the list, let me tell you a bit about him. He's a multiple stakes winner and one of only two colts in the field to have won a pair of stakes races around two turns with at least one coming at nine furlongs. The other? Colonel John.

He's recorded three wins and two seconds in his last five starts, including a bang-up second in his lone grade one event, beaten just a neck. In his two races at 1 1/8 miles, his fractional times (from the half to the mile) were 47 3/5 and 48 1/5, numbers faster than almost every horse in the race except for Colonel John. That quickness will help since he'll most likely sit about five to seven lengths off the early pace. He also ran his final three furlongs in 36 1/5 and 36 3/5, with his final eighth coming in 12 1/5 and 12 2/5 in those two events, signaling an outstanding turn of foot as the field moves around the far turn. And, it's at that point of the race where the Derby is usually won.

He is also magnificently bred for the 1 1/4 miles, as his sire was a multiple group one winner in Europe at three, and even came to the states to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the dirt at Churchill Downs. His dam's mother is a half-sister to Behrens, who won the Suburban Handicap, as well as running second in many other 10-furlong events, such as the Dubai World Cup, Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Travers.

This particular horse will not be one of the favorites. He won't even be 20-1. His expected final odds will range anywhere from 30 to 40-1, giving him the title of the biggest overlay in the race. His only knock (and almost every participant has one) is the fact he's run only once on dirt and finished seventh. But that was his first race and it came all the way back in the summer of 2007. What's not to say he won't like it now after running five more times, including a non-turf, second-place finish last time out?

His name is Cowboy Cal, and he's not getting any respect because he's a turf horse. Well my friends, take a quick look at how some other so-called "turf horses" have done of late.

Last year, Sedgefield, who ran second to Hard Spun on Polytrack in the Lane's End, finished fifth in Kentucky at 58-1 and he wasn't anywhere near as good on turf as Cowboy Cal. In addition, one could argue that last year's Derby field was much tougher than this year's edition.

Two years ago, there was a special turf horse that had won the same two stakes that Cowboy Cal galloped in: the Tropical Park Derby and the Laurel Futurity. His name was Barbaro. There certainly cannot be any comparison between the two horses since Barbaro reeled off a pair of dirt victories prior to the Derby, but don't underestimate Cowboy Cal's second in the Blue Grass. Sure he got away with a slow pace, but it was his first race in almost two months and he still held off 10 dirt and Polytrack horses.

If you're looking for a long shot with a great chance to win, look no further than the "Cowboy."

At the opposite end of the betting spectrum comes Big Brown. Even with all the negatives mentioned above, and I haven't even touched on previous quarter cracks in both front feet, he still must be feared since there is a chance he is that much better than everyone else. It's true that horses with three career starts do not usually win the Derby (hasn't been done since 1915), but we live in an age where three-year-olds aren't placed on the track 10 to 12 times anymore. In fact, only four of the 20 horses in this year's race have run more than seven times. If you don't care to bet Big Brown, do so because you think he won't be able to sustain constant harassment from the other pacesetters, more than for his lack of experience.

THE TOP TWO

Monba ranks second on the top 10 Derby list after his bounce-back performance in the Blue Grass. The son of Maria's Mon (sire of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos) finished last in his only other prep this year, the Fountain of Youth, due to a cut on his right hind leg suffered during the running of the race. He then lost valuable training time, not to mention undergoing throat surgery. But through it all, trainer Todd Pletcher never lost sight of his goal, and Monba returned with an outstanding race at Keeneland.

This horse hasn't all of a sudden jumped onto the scene with his win in the Blue Grass. He toppled 11 other opponents in two different races as a two- year-old, including a victory over recent Derby Trial winner Macho Again at Churchill Downs last November.

However, his most impressive race (up until a few weeks ago) came with an off- the-board finish in the Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park. Not many two- year-olds in their third career start (and first around two turns) are able to come home as strongly as he did, running his final 4 1/2 furlongs in under 53 seconds.

That race, incidentally, is turning into the most important prep as both Monba (fourth) and Colonel John (second) have recorded grade one wins in 2008. Even Sierra Sunset (sixth) took home the grade two, Rebel Stakes, and Tres Borrachos (12th), and Indian Sun (fifth) finished third and fourth respectively in the grade one, Arkansas Derby. Not to mention Eaton's Gift (seventh) won the grade two, Swale Stakes, and Into Mischief (winner) ran second to Georgie Boy in the grade two, San Vicente.

There are many horses in this race with impeccable breeding for 10 furlongs, and Monba is certainly one of them. As previously mentioned, his sire, Maria's Mon, has already produced a Kentucky Derby champion (Monarchos) and his broodmare sire, Easy Goer won the 1 1/2 miles Belmont Stakes.

Another reason Monba might be on the way up is the surgery performed on his throat after the Fountain of Youth. Many horses have returned to win back-to- back races after such a procedure, including Alysheba, who won the Blue Grass (although disqualified from the top spot) and then the Derby, and the 2007 champion sprinter Midnight Lute garnered victories in the Forego and Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Monba has shown an ability to run well close to the pace (the Blue Grass) and from out-of-the-clouds (the Cash Call) and that versatility will come in handy in Louisville. However, there are two major negatives he must overcome. First, he worked poorly at Keeneland last Saturday going five furlongs in 1:02 3/5. He has never been a great horse in the mornings, but he did blow out four furlongs right before the Blue Grass in 47 1/5. Secondly, since he acquired nothing from his last-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, he technically is coming into the Derby off only one prep race this year. It helps a little that his last race of 2007 came in late December, but is he going to be 100% fit with just the Blue Grass as his sole "real" race in '08?

Colonel John is by far and away the top choice to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby. He is the most accomplished horse in the field (the only one without any flaws) and in most years would be the favorite. His only negative - never having run on dirt - has been answered with an effortless 57 4/5 work at Churchill Downs on April 27. His win in the Santa Anita Derby (final furlong in 12 flat) was eye-catching, and if the race had been run on dirt, his Beyer figure would have definitely topped the magical 100 mark.

His sire Tiznow won back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classics and his dam, Sweet Damsel, is by Turkoman, who won the Marlboro Cup and Widener Handicaps at 10 panels, along with finishing second in the 1986 BC Classic and the 1985 Travers. Two other daughters of Turkoman, Turkos Turn and Turkish Tryst, respectively, produced Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Point Given, and Kentucky Derby and BC Classic runner-up, Hard Spun.

More importantly, almost every horse that has shipped from synthetic surfaces in Southern California has improved dramatically when switched to dirt at other tracks around the country. Gayego went from Santa Anita to Oaklawn, a similar surface to Churchill Downs, and won the Arkansas Derby improving seven Beyer points in the process from 96 to 103. Even the two other California horses in the race, Tres Borrachos and Indian Sun, ran third and fourth.

Sierra Sunset was an average horse in California until he hit Oaklawn to run second to Denis of Cork in the Southwest and win the Rebel. Even four-year-old Monterey Jazz, who posted only one triple-digit Beyer number in 12 career starts (the last two coming at Santa Anita), came to Lone Star Park this past weekend and rolled in the Texas Mile with a 118 Beyer.

Colonel John is bred to run all day, is the class of the race and has a chance to win this race by five lengths.

Of course a lot can change between Tuesday and Saturday, so the selection order is certainly not set in stone. Wednesday's post-position draw will go a long way in determining the outcome of the race, and the weather could play havoc as well, as the early forecast calls for a 60% chance of thunderstorms for Friday night.