Fri Apr 25 15:16:24 2008

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Sizing up the Kentucky Derby field (Part II of III)

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The biggest news on the Kentucky Derby trail the past few days has come from the expected favorite and super-talented Big Brown. Sure, there have been some stellar workouts of late by the likes of Court Vision and Denis of Cork, but the news is always magnified when the most discussed horse in the field makes headlines, and that's exactly what Big Brown did this past Thursday at Palm Meadows training center in Boynton Beach, Florida.

The undefeated colt worked five furlongs in 58 3/5, handily and no one was more enthusiastic than his trainer, Rick Dutrow, who proclaimed that even if Big Brown is not the public's choice on Derby say, his stable will "make sure he's the favorite."

More about Big Brown and his possible date with destiny next week in part three of "Sizing up the Derby," but let's not put the cart before the horse, so to speak. There are still many names to ponder before the top seven contenders are finally revealed next Tuesday.

POTENTIAL UNDERLAYS

A few names on this list are what handicappers refer to as the "wise guy" horse, a colt that gets much more publicity than it should thereby creating a huge underlay. The three colts that have the most potential this year to suck up a ton of money at the windows are: Adriano, Bob Black Jack and Smooth Air.

Adriano is primarily a turf horse that has had zero success on dirt. Two of his three lifetime wins (a maiden score, along with a non-winners of one allowance race) have come over the weeds, and he isn't even the most accomplished turf horse in the field. That title goes to Cowboy Cal, who crushed him in the Laurel Futurity last November by 9 1/4 lengths.

The Graham Motion-trained colt failed miserably in his lone dirt try, the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in late February, but in his defense, he began the race from the dreaded post 12, which forced him extremely wide as the field passed the stands for the first time. He also was steadied for a bit behind Monba around the clubhouse turn. Nevertheless, he never lifted a hoof, ending up ninth, beaten by 17 lengths.

So why are the wise guys all over him? Well, he came through to win his next race, albeit on Polytrack in the Lane's End. Edgar Prado had the mount that day and will stay with the colt, accepting the mount last week, thereby declining to ride either Monba or Tale of Ekati.

It's interesting to note that the main reasons Prado's agent gave to the media on why he chose Adriano were: 1) he won on that horse in the Lane's End before he rode the other two and 2) he felt obligated to ride for Graham Motion.

First off, the Lane's End was March 22, and Prado had already ridden Monba back in February when both horses ran in the Fountain of Youth. He then piloted Tale of Ekati in the LA Derby on March 8. Maybe his agent meant to say that he "won" on Adriano before the other two, not "rode." Even so, this was not a case of Prado thinking Adriano is better than Monba or even Tale of Ekati, he just picked that horse to maintain his relationship with Motion.

But back to the real issue at hand, Adriano is not coming anywhere close to winning the Derby. He beat up on a bunch of "pigs" in the Lane's End and did so running his final three furlongs in 37 4/5, which is far slower than almost every contender in this field. He also has not looked good in his Churchill Downs workouts, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 last Sunday, while galloping out six in 1:16 flat. Motion said he was happy with the work, but he also stated that it looked as if he was "goofing off a little bit."

Adriano should be 50-1, but will be bet down anywhere from 15 to 20 to one.

Bob Black Jack ran very impressively to hold onto the second spot in the Santa Anita Derby in his last start, but beware of wagering on the son of Stormy Jack. His breeding suggests he will not last the 1 -distance. With that in mind, it's becoming apparent with each passing day that the instructions given to whatever jockey gets the mount will be to NOT rush the horse to the early lead.

Remember, this is the same horse that broke the world record earlier this year by going six furlongs in 1:06 2/5. Since then, David Flores had him on the front end ahead of Gayego in the San Felipe, and Richard Migliore placed him just one length back of Coast Guard through a half in 47 2/5 in the Santa Anita Derby.

In an unusual twist, Flores, "Black Jack's" regular rider, may not be aboard the colt if Behindatthebar's connections end up entering the Lexington Stakes winner in the Derby. Todd Pletcher has already stated that Flores will be riding Behindatthebar, leaving "Black Jack" without his usual jockey.

Even without Flores, Bob Black Jack is as gritty as they come. Unfortunately, 10 furlongs will not suit him one bit. Take a look at the Santa Anita Derby, specifically as the field moved around the far turn, and you'll get an idea of what I'm talking about.

He was in the two/three path right alongside Coast Guard, when all of a sudden he bolted to about the eight-path coming off the turn. He then made a sharp turn, cutting back to the middle of the track impeding the progress of Yankee Bravo. After that, he ducked out sharply at the eighth-pole before overtaking Coast Guard for the lead. Incredibly, if Colonel John was not in the race, Bob Black Jack would have won. Nonetheless, this is not the gait of a horse ready to win at 10 panels on the first Saturday in May, regardless of which jockey gets the mount.

Smooth Air is has become one of the "wise guy" selections based on his second- place finish to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. If Big Brown ends up being the favorite, what's not to like about the horse that ran second to him in what could be argued as the top prep run this spring?

The problem with Smooth Air is that he's technically a sprinter that has had only one decent route race under his belt. That's why he's the only possible Derby entrant the past couple of weeks to post a workout longer than five furlongs. In fact, his trainer, Bennie Stutts Jr has been keeping the little horse extremely busy with a mile workout back on April 13 and a seven-furlong workout six days later.

If one watches the film of the Florida Derby, he'll see that it took almost the entire far turn for Smooth Air to pass Nistle's Crunch, who ended up seventh, beaten by 19 lengths. In addition, none of the 10 horses that finished behind him at the wire are good enough to race in the Kentucky Derby.

THE BACK END OF THE TOP 10

We start the list from the number 10 spot and that position belongs to Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati. This colt is a hard one to get a feel for since his only other race since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile came off a four-month layoff.

Nevertheless, his victory in the Wood was a solid, if not workmanlike effort, as he nailed two-year-old champion War Pass by a half-length to gain the win. The son of Tale of the Cat crossed the wire in 1:52 1/5 for the 1 1/8, remarkably sluggish when compared to most other nine furlong preps this spring. The Barclay Tagg-trained colt also crawled home in 40 1/5 for his final three furlongs.

One can argue that the track was extremely deep that afternoon, especially from around the far turn to the wire, and that alone excuses Tale of Ekati for his poor fractional and final times. To that end, Temporary Saint, the winner of the Excelsior Handicap for older stakes horses run 32 minutes earlier, ran his 1 1/8 in 1:51 flat, also far below the usual standard for his class.

Even if one wants to take the stand that the track was slow that afternoon, Tale of Ekati's victory was still made a little easier by the insane first quarter-and-a-half (22 2/5 and 46 flat) that War Pass and Inner Light put up. All he had to do was sit tight and wait for the speed to finally tire, which was exactly what happened.

In the end, it wasn't about "Ekati" winning the race as much as being in t he right spot at the right time to pick up the pieces. The fact that the winners of the 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th races on the card (the Wood being the 9th) all had the lead at the half shows how speed was holding up that day.

Given the slowness of the track, it's hard to get a real gauge on his overall abilities. His race in the Louisiana Derby came off a four-month layoff and he broke slow from the gate that day before making a brief move around the final turn. He ended up finishing sixth, beaten 6 lengths to Pyro in a race that certainly tightened him up for his next effort.

The pace in the Derby will no doubt be as fast as the early fractions were in the Wood, but the quality of colts he was facing in that race were nowhere near the excellence he'll be matched up against on May 3. Additionally, only one horse - Fusaichi Pegasus - has pulled off the Wood Memorial/Kentucky Derby double since 1982, and Tale of Ekati is no Fusaichi Pegasus.

Another horse that looks like he might have a bit of a future is Visionaire. Brought to you by Michael Matz, the same trainer that raced Barbaro, this colt ran the fastest final three-furlong time registered by any colt in a 1 1/8 prep race this season with his 35 4/5 final three-eighths of a mile in the Blue Grass. He also owns a victory in the slop in the Gotham at Aqueduct, which could be of major importance if the track comes up a quagmire on Derby day.

Nonetheless, the knocks on him are many. If one spends time perusing his past performances, he'll find a third-place finish despite benefiting from a rail- saving trip the entire race in the Risen Star; a come-from-behind nose victory on a sloppy racetrack in New York over Texas Wildcatter, who came back to run 8th in the Wood; and even though he closed fearlessly in the Blue Grass, he only made up of a length on Stevril in the final 1/8th of a mile. He also was trailing the entire field at Keeneland at the top of the stretch.

Visionaire has gotten into a habit of falling very far back early in his past two races, and that laziness will not suit him well in his next outing. One could point out that those two races were not on fast dirt tracks, but I don't see him improving his early positional capabilities in Kentucky.

His breeding also doesn't scream "1 ," as his sire Grand Slam was a sprinter that has produced more speedsters than routers, and his dam side is loaded with Maryland-based fillies and mares that showed more promise in sprints than in longer distances. He certainly does have some talent and could sneak in for third or fourth, but it's highly doubtful he will fill out anyone's exacta.

Steve Asmussen will send out a pair of runners in Z Fortune and Pyro. Between the two, they swept the three Louisiana preps with the former taking the LeComte in early January while the latter garnered "W's" in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby.

Z Fortune follows Visionaire on the list after a game second in the Arkansas Derby. The son of Siphon began his career with three straight victories, two coming in New York-bred races and the third being the previously mentioned Lecomte Stakes. He ran a bang-up second to Pyro in the Risen Star and likely would have won if not for his stablemate's powerful surge through the lane.

Unfortunately, the gray colt floundered in the Rebel with an inexplicable fifth-place finish, beaten by almost 10 lengths by Sierra Sunset. A rebound was expected in the Arkansas Derby and he was let go, amazingly, at 6-1. Jockey Robby Albarado had him four wide almost the entire race and he still closed strongly enough to finish second to Gayego, beaten by less than a length.

But herein lies the dilemma. How strong was the Arkansas Derby? Sure, the final time was an impressive 1:49 3/5 after a half run in 46 and change, but did Z Fortune really run a huge race? As mentioned in the first part of this series, his running time from the half to the mile (49 1/5), from six furlongs to the wire (37 3/5) and his final 1/8th of a mile (12 4/5) were all the same fractions that Big Truck ran in the Blue Grass. And it wasn't as if the "Truck" did anything to go nuts about at Keeneland. He was sixth at the half (4 lengths back) and dropped all the way back to 11th at the wire, beaten by 11 lengths.

It's obvious the Blue Grass was a much slower-paced race (49 to the half) and it's somewhat impossible to compare dirt races to those on Polytrack, but if Z Fortune were of black-type quality, he would have come home faster than 37 3/5.

The truth is Gayego was meant to be beat at Oaklawn. The problem was there was nobody in the field capable of doing so. Take a look once again at the quality of horses in the Blue Grass and compare it to the Arkansas Derby. No less than six colts from the race in Keeneland are moving forward to Churchill Downs, while only the first and second-place finishers from Oaklawn will be venturing to Kentucky.

The only reason Z Fortune makes this list and Gayego is among the horses chosen for the final column next week is the fact that Z Fortune ran by far his lifetime best race (though he still couldn't win), and will most likely regress in his next start.

There are seven horses left to decipher, maybe eight if Denis of Cork somehow makes it into the field, and they will all be discussed next Tuesday in part three of "Sizing up the Derby." In the meantime, I implore all to do their own research by watching the replays of the major preps. The insight one can find is invaluable when attacking the challenge of picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

(This article is the second of three Kentucky Derby columns that will run prior to the post-position draw on Wednesday, April 30. Stay tuned the day before the race for a final piece, which will be chock full of analysis along with predicted odds and selections.)