Fri Oct 26 15:30:22 2007

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The Breeders Cup comes to Monmouth Park

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The 24th renewal of the Breeders Cup takes us to Oceanport, New Jersey, the home of Monmouth Park, where rain will definitely be a factor. The Northeast has been hit hard all week long and an off-track is expected, which will give speed horses toward the inside a huge advantage.

Three new races have been added in 2007 - the Filly and Mare Sprint, the Juvenile Turf and the Dirt Mile - and all three will take place on Friday. The usual eight will be run on Saturday.

Time to tackle Fridays races 8-10, beginning with the F&M Sprint. La Traviata and Dream Rush are the two favorites and the choice here is the latter. Dream Rush has the edge in experience with eight career starts to just three for La Traviata. In addition, the winner of the Test Stakes will break from post three, four spots inside of the undefeated La Traviata.

The choice: Dream Rush / Longshot: Wild Gams

Prussian is the early choice in the Juvenile Turf, but will be tested by a few Europeans as well as an American star in waiting named Gio Ponti. Christophe Clement brings this two-year-old to Monmouth after winning the Bourbon Stakes in Keeneland earlier this month. Look for him to sit, stalk and mow down Prussian through the lane.

The choice: Gio Ponti / Longshot: Texas Fever

The Dirt Mile will have a false favorite in Discreet Cat. After winning his first six starts, the son of Forestry ran last in the Dubai Cup and came back to the USA to finish third in the Vosburgh as the odds-on choice. Expect an off-the-board finish for Discreet Cat.

The pick here is Wanderin Boy as he has worked well since running 7th, beaten 22 lengths by Lawyer Ron in the Woodward. With two wins in three tries on off- tracks, he could very well upset the field especially since hell be on the lead early and has the speed to wire them.

The choice: Wanderin Boy / Longshot: Gottcha Gold

JUVENILE FILLIES

The Juvenile Fillies race opens the eight Breeders Cup events and will go as the fourth race on the card. Indian Blessing will put her 2-for-2 record on the line against 13 other two-year-old fillies. The daughter of Indian Charlie has won both starts by a combined 9 -lengths and will be tough to beat since she possesses fine early foot in a race lacking in speed.

However, theres one filly that could upset her and thats Irish Smoke. The gray/roan daughter of former Monmouth-based sprinter Smoke Glacken won her first two starts in impressive fashion before failing miserably on Polytrack in the Alcibiades at Keeneland. She finished last that day as the 6-5 favorite, but will rebound on Saturday.

The choice: Irish Smoke / Second place: Izarra / Longshot: A to the Croft

JUVENILE

The Juvenile also sports an expected heavy favorite in War Pass. The son of Cherokee Run has won all three of his starts, including an impressive victory in the Champagne at Belmont Park, where he opened up a five-length lead and coasted home in 1:36 flat. Wicked Style is also three-for-three but drew the outside post, not a spot you want to be with a short run into the first turn.

The pick here is Kodiak Kowboy. Steve Asmussen, of Curlin fame, trains this winner of four of six starts, including the Saratoga Special and Bashford Manor earlier this summer. In his last outing, he ran second to Tale of Ekati, his first appearance longer than 6 -furlongs. J.R. Velazquez picks up the mount and if he can sit him slightly off the pace, he might be able to pull off the upset.

The choice: Kodiak Kowboy / Second place: War Pass / Longshot: Slews Tiznow

FILLY AND MARE TURF

The next event features 12 fillies and mares going 1 3/8th mile on the turf. Ouija Board won this race in 2006 at 7-5, but there will be no such short- priced filly or mare this year. Passage of Time, Europes top choice, will battle American, Nashobas Key, for favoritism. Neither of which will be lower than 2-1.

Honey Ryder could surprise them all on what will be a soft turf course. The six-year-old finished third in this event last year after going seven wide down the stretch. She ended up missing second by only a neck. Honey Ryder has just one win this year, but did finish second on this racetrack to English Channel in the United Nations racing against the boys. Shell also benefit from the extra moisture on the turf

The choice: Honey Ryder / Second place: Passage of Time / Longshot: Timarwa

SPRINT

The Sprint has produced double-digit prices the last two years with both favorites finishing off the board. Could it happen for a third straight year? Midnight Lute, who will take all the money after dominating his nine rivals in the Forego last month at Saratoga, is a prime candidate to bounce off that effort. However, his impending doom still doesnt make picking a winner any easier.

Early speed will be on display as Talent Search, Commentator, Idiot Proof and Bordonaro will all vie for the lead from the start and the one that has the top combination of speed, class and an affinity for the off going is Commentator. The New York-bred has faltered in his last two starts, but will relish the mud and take the Sprint.

The choice: Commentator / Second place: Idiot Proof / Longshot: Talent Search

MILE

Americans have won the Mile the last three years, but the morning line favorite is the English-bred Excellent Art. The three-year-old has already won the group one St. James Palace and finished second in the Queen Elizabeth II last time out. Still, hes won only one race at the distance and is tough to take as the choice from post 13. Nobiz Like Shobiz is three-for-three since hitting the weeds after an unsuccessful Kentucky Derby and Dwyer, but might not like cutting back to one-mile

After Market might be the second choice behind Excellent Art with four wins in his last five starts, but most of his victories came out west in longer races. He also might be too far off the pace to get a piece of the money. I wouldnt be surprised to see a longshot take this race and the five-year-old Cosmonaut might be the one. Since theres not much pace, he could be all alone on the lead down the stretch and should have enough bottom to withstand all comers.

The choice: Cosmonaut / Second place: Excellent Art / Longshot: Trippis Storm

DISTAFF

The Distaff is extremely wide open with Indian Vale, Unbridled Belle and Ginger Punch all vying for favoritism. Todd Pletcher, who trains two of the three (Indian Vale and Unbridled Belle), also has a three-year-old that could end up being the best of them all in Octave.

The daughter of Unbridleds Song has never finished off the board in 12 starts, but has a bit of "seconditis" with seven second-place finishes. She ran a dynamite second to Rags to Riches in the mud at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Oaks and followed that up with back-to-back victories in the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks at Belmont. Look for her to stay close to the pace and pound out the win.

The choice: Octave / Second place and longshot: Balance

TURF

The Turf is a two-horse race between Europes best Dylan Thomas and Americas choice, English Channel. The former is trying to become the first horse to win both the Arc de Triomphe and the BC Turf in the same season, while the latter loves the soft going and is 2-2 on the track with consecutive victories the last two years in the United Nations here at Monmouth.

There isnt much behind the top two as last years winner, Red Rocks, and Grand Couturier are the only other logical challengers. If you dont like taking the chalk, sit this one out.

The choice: Dylan Thomas / Second place: English Channel / Longshot: Grand Couturier

CLASSIC

The Breeders Cup Classic is a battle of the top four three-year-olds with the best of the older set, Lawyer Ron, thrown into the mix. Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday have won just about every important three- year-old race this year save for Rags To Riches victory in the Belmont.

Any Given Saturday was this columnists Kentucky Derby choice, but the son of Distorted Humor couldnt keep up down the stretch and finished a disappointing 8th. Since then, hes three-for-three with wins in the Dwyer, Haskell and Brooklyn. It took him a few months, but hes now put forth the kind of efforts that were expected earlier in the spring. Look for an easy win from 2007s Horse of the Year.

The choice: Any Given Saturday / Second place: Street Sense / Longshot: Tiago