Tue Jan 22 13:04:48 2008

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The Kentucky Derby trail begins

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Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Unless you're a gambler who loves basketball, this coming week is by far the low point of the calendar year. With the Super Bowl more than a week away and the NHL in the midst of its all- star break, there's not much left to spend one's hard-earned money on.

For those in the need of a football fix, there's always the Senior Bowl down in Mobile, Alabama. The North has dominated of late, winning and covering the last three years, but if one wants to wager his cash on a college all-star game, good luck.

With little if any action taking place this week, it's a great time to speculate on the top Kentucky Derby contenders, as the first of three Future Pools is less than one month away.

Two supposed longshots came through with huge efforts earlier this month as El Gato Malo and Z Fortune scored impressive wins in the San Rafael and LeComte Stakes, respectively.

El Gato Malo, a gelded son of El Corredor, easily stormed past the tiring front-runners with a powerful stretch drive, coasting home to a 6 -length romp in 1:33 1/5 over the Santa Anita Polytrack surface. The victory is a bit tainted since "Malo" received a dream trip sitting well off an extremely blistering pace of 44 1/5 and 1:07 4/5. The Kentucky-bred three-year-old is now undefeated in three starts with a combined winning margin of 16 lengths. However, his breeding suggests the 1 on the first Saturday in May is a tad out of his range.

The other prep race run that weekend was down in Louisiana, as Z Fortune proved best in the one-mile LeComte at Fair Grounds. It was his third win in three starts and first outside of New York. Steve Asmussen, of Curlin fame, trains the undefeated son of Siphon, who will surely pick up a lot of support after his 2 -length victory

Unlike the San Rafael, which showcased insane early fractions, the LeComte produced a moderate pace of 48 1/5 for the half and 1:12 4/5 for six furlongs. Shaun Bridgmohan, Z Fortune's jockey, settled his colt a few lengths behind the leaders down the backstretch, received clear sailing as the field approached the top of the stretch, and devoured his rivals down the lane with a final quarter run in 24 seconds flat.

Despite the victory, Z Fortune still might not be the best three-year-old bred in New York. That honor goes to Giant Moon, who prevailed by a neck in the Count Fleet at Aqueduct a week before the LeComte. The undefeated colt received a 92 Beyer figure in that event, his highest in four career starts. Trainer Richard Schosberg is expected to keep his charge in the Empire State until the Kentucky Derby.

TOP CONTENDERS

Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner War Pass will be number one on the list of Derby favorites when the first pool arrives in February, but as is the case with El Gato Malo, one has to wonder how the undefeated colt will get the Kentucky Derby distance

His sire, Cherokee Run, took home an Eclipse Award as the nation's top sprinter in 1994, and most of his progeny excel in races less than one mile with a select few reaching success up to nine panels. His dam, Vue, was an effective sprinter in her racing days and her offspring usually perform better at eight furlongs or less. It's a stretch to think War Pass will even hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, despite his eye-catching performances in the Champagne and the Breeders' Cup.

The second choice in the early wagering should be Court Vision. With consecutive victories in the Iroquois and Remsen late last year, the Bill Mott-trained colt should get plenty of support throughout the spring. Even if his efforts were below par speed-wise, he would still be among the favorites based on pedigree alone.

His dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to Summer Squall and a half to A.P Indy. If one is unfamiliar with those two names, then he can't call himself a fan of the sport. The former won the 1990 Preakness, while the latter was crowned horse of the year in 1992 after capturing the Belmont and Breeders' Cup Classic.

Court Vision was ultra-impressive in winning the Iroquois with an explosive run through the stretch, but his victory in the Remsen added some new admirers. It was his first test around two-turns, but that didn't prevent him from winning his third straight start.

Lagging behind the early pacesetters down the backstretch, although not as far back as in the Iroquois, the handsomely bred colt needed some vision of his own as the field approached the top of the lane.

Ridden by Eibar Coa for the first time, he was blocked behind a wall of horses down the stretch. It was at that point that Coa tried to burst through a seam on the outside, but the move was stalled when Trust N Dustan closed off the hole. Undeterred, Coa muscled his colt past that challenger and was still a couple of lengths behind Atoned at the 1/8-pole. Showing his gameness, Court Vision reached another gear and nailed his rival by a neck at the wire.

Bill Mott's ultimate goal prior to the first Saturday in May is the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in early April, but the path to get to Ozone Park is still up for grabs. Regardless of the chosen route, Court Vision is certainly a horse to watch this spring.

One three-year-old that could have been a factor, but probably won't be, is Etched. His connections, Darley Stables, have decided to send him to Dubai for his '08 prep races, a move that has simply ruined every single one of their Kentucky Derby prospects over the years. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is well aware of the horse's talents, but admits he might be something of a head case. Those two factors will spoil his chances despite a two-for-two record, including an easy win in the Nashua by over six lengths.

Other contenders include the likes of Anak Nakal, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club; Pyro, a two-time second place finisher to two-year-old champion War Pass, as well as Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, Majestic Warrior and Cowboy Cal.